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Today we are looking at more floor rankings for Running Backs. As usual, if you are familiar with the calculations behind the numbers you can skip down to the next section.
Quick explanation of the Floor number for anyone that is not familiar with it. The Floor is the least amount of points we can expect from a player when he has his worst game. There is only a 16 % chance that he won't reach this number, so we can be fairly sure to get this amount of points each week. Let’s dig in!
Well I know who I am drafting first overall in 2018. Ezekiel Elliott’s floor is just out of this world. I thought that it was a bit too high due to a small sample but now, even with him missing time in 2017 I have no problem with saying, he has the most stable one game floor in the entire league. 10.2 points as the least amount you can expect from your Running Back on any given day is crazy high but also, that is 1.3 points higher than the second guy on the list. Le’Veon Bell also has an incredible floor and I would have no hesitation to draft him if Elliott was gone, but with Elliott on the board I would not even think for a second.
Leonard Fournette is in the same boat as Elliott was heading into last year. Incredibly talented, good situation and small sample size. I like to see a few more games before I would spend a top 5 pick on him this year. He is currently going 9th overall which is pretty OK, if he’s there I would still look at the available Wide Receivers before handing in my pick.
If I am scared about the small sample size of Fournette, then I am terrified of Dalvin Cook’s. He is in a great situation in Minnesota but a small sample size combined with an injury and a 14th overall pick, I would not touch him. If he were to fall in one of my drafts to where I can get him in the 3rd round, fine but not before that.
Alvin Kamara also has the issue of sample size with a huge prize of 6th overall. However, I am more OK with drafting him than Cook and Fournette, this is due to the fact that Ingram will be missing the first four games. If that wasn’t the case I would be as hesitant to draft him. But, we saw what he could do with Ingram, now he has the chance to dominate for four weeks and then get back to being what he was or a little bit below that.
McCoy has a very stable floor but his one game ceiling that we will get into over the summer is not high enough for me to get excited. However, his draft stock is going down and if it continues to do so I would not mind spending a 3rd or 4th round pick on him. It is all about value and the perceived value of the opposing drafters.
There is a small gap down to Devonta Freeman from LeSean McCoy. Freeman is then followed by David Johnson and Todd Gurley and again I am not telling you to draft LeSean McCoy over any of these three, especially not Gurley or DJ but what I am saying is that on any given day LeSean McCoy will give you more points if he plays his worst compared to what the others will do.
I love a Running Back with a high floor, that is something that always try to focus on. With that, I know that I will not be drafting DJ or Gurley in any league this year unless the fall (and they won’t). The price you have to pay to get any of them to what you are getting is not what I am looking for. Compared to Elliott for instance, he is right now going as the fourth Running Back, for me that is gold! I would much rather have him and he goes later, that is the best situation possible.
I would even consider skipping David Johnson and Todd Gurley and just roll with Devonta Freeman in the late second round. Even with him having a lower ceiling, with the same one game floor and almost two rounds later I would be happy!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD