Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, this is going to be a long post with focus on 4 teams so I will keep the intro short. The only thing I want to touch on briefly before we dig in is the injury of Hunter Henry. First, it is a terrible situation for him as a person before it is anything for us fantasy guys. Secondly, with the injury I feel like the Score Projection about the Chargers that was planned for next week is less interesting and will be postponed until they have a Tight End in place. So instead of the Chargers being featured in the next Video I will zoom in on the San Francisco 49ers.
If you are familiar with how I calculate Market Share you can skip down to the Falcons. First, to arrive at Rush and Pass Pools I have analyzed the trends from the team’s last two years and put that in relation two all of their opponent’s trends from the last two years. This gives us an idea of how many pass and rush attempts a team will have in 2018. Second, to arrive at the share for each position I analyze the team's trends from the last 3 years. How they have targeted their different roles with more emphasis on the most recent year with the 3rd year getting the least amount of consideration. With these numbers I arrive at a projection for share of the targets and carries that can be used on relation with the Rush and Pass Pools to get a projected amount of targets and carries. Let's dig in!
They are facing teams that give up a bunch of pass attempts while limiting their opponents to very few rush attempts. This sounds like a bunch of opponents with offenses that forces you to throw the ball by scoring a bunch of points. This is something good for the Falcons, considering they have one of the best scoring machines in the league. The Falcons face teams that combine for the 7th most passing attempts to opponents in the league.
These are Wide Receiver 1 numbers, Julio Jones as always is going to be extremely targeted in 2018. After him there is a huge drop down to Sanu who still has numbers that could equal some number 1 guys, for instance Cooks with 96 in LA. I don’t expect Calvin Ridley to be a viable starter over the course of the season unless something were to happen to the guys in front of him, there just is not enough targets to go around. Hooper is alright but I will not be drafting him, I might have to start him in a dynasty league where I just lost Henry and feel OK with it but not happy.
Coleman has some of the largest RB2 numbers that I have looked at so far and since the combined rush pool is as big as it is I don’t see any problem in drafting either one of these guys. Of course you can’t draft them close to each other but I hope you know what I mean. I would not mind drafting Coleman over C.J. Anderson for instance, see Anderson’s projected market share below.
Even though I talked up the Falcons passing pool the Panthers have an even larger pool and especially from the opponents who combine to form the 5th largest pass pool in the entire league (hint, we might see an increase in the pass pool for every team we see today). The Panthers rushing pool is also extremely large, only behind the Bills and Cowboys. This is something that you think would benefit the Running Backs but maybe that is not the entire story.
This group of Receivers are nothing too intriguing to me for fantasy purposes. Sure people are high on D.J. Moore but he is still a Rookie Receiver with a less than accurate Quarterback in a run first offense. The projected depth chart is as always from rosterresource.com.
The 2 guys that I am interested in drafting based of the market share from this group are Christian McCaffrey and Greg Olsen. McCaffrey has not the most amount of carries in the league or even an amount that make you say, that is a RB1. However, when you combine his projected carries with his targets I am more than willing to give him a look. Olsen is Olsen, 87 targets is a more than decent amount for him to be succesful.
Oh no, does the Buccaneers have an even larger pass pool than both the Falcons and the Panthers, who would have guessed? However, this is not a result from their opponents, well they still have opponents that give up more than the Falcons and Panthers, but their own passing pool is way bigger than the 2 previous teams.
The Buccaneers sort of have the same situation as the Falcons, a WR1 that gets a huge chunk of the target share followed by a large gap down to the second guy. DeSean Jackson has a decent pool, 6 targets behind a guy like Mohamed Sanu, so he is viable but with a less accurate Quarterback and a smaller pool I am still scared of putting to much faith in him.
Do not get me started on the Running Backs in Tampa Bay. I have no idea what is going on and the people that say they know how it will go, I feel like they don’t. Just be honest, right now, we don’t know how it is going to look. That is all I would like to say about the situation. They usually give the RB1 58% of all carries and 8% of all passes, and as far as I know they will do the same again in 2018 but who it will be, I have no idea.
Due to Cameron Brate being good and O.J. Howard being a 1st round draft pick the Tight End situation is extremely unsafe in Tampa. I loved it when Brate was alone or when I thought he would leave and let Howard take the reins. Now it feels like neither of them will be a great fantasy Tight End but the floor for just one of them, depending who’s the number 1 guy is a good fantasy TE, that’s all 69 targets will let you be.
Finally, the Saints, the team that will face the combination of teams that give up the most passing attempts to opponents in the entire league. With the information so far, it is safe to say that the NFC South is the pass heaviest division in the entire NFL. This is not that big of a surprise when you think about it, they all have high octane offenses with Quarterbacks who are willing to throw it over and over again (Yes Cam throws too).
I have in a previous YouTube Video and in a article here on the website discussed how much I like Michael Thomas going into 2018. He is my easily a top 5 Wide Receiver for me going into the draft based on the numbers I have analyzed so far (not revealed all of them yet). However, I would have liked to see a little bit higher target share for him. 132 projected targets is still very good but 8 more and I am walking on clouds.
Ted Ginn is Ted Ginn, he will have his games where he explodes and the games where he disappears, I don't think that it will change even if he falls down behind Meredith in the pecking order during training camp. I expect this WR2 role is very much up for grabs, and even Brandon Coleman has a change to climb the depth chart.
I decided to put Kamara as RB1 due to Ingram's suspension. Other than that I think when Ingram gets back there might be a change, especially if the lean heavily on Kamara the first four weeks.
No Jimmy Graham, no Tight End to pay attention to.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD