Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I have some fun news for y’all today. I am announcing a new series for the YouTube channel, “Fantasy Snapshot”. This series will be a quick video with tons of stats, facts and draft grade for a player heading into the 2018 season. An episode in “Fantasy Snapshot” will feature one player and will be shorter than 1.5 minutes. I am not yet sure on how many episodes there will be but for now 2 are already done. What I want for you is to tweet me @csdfantasy with players you would like to see a Snapshot for, the only requirement is that the player played in the NFL during the 2017 season.
Today we are looking at more floor rankings for Running Backs. As usual, if you are familiar with the calculations behind the numbers you can skip down to the next section.
Quick explanation of the Floor number for anyone that is not familiar with it. The Floor is the least amount of points we can expect from a player when he has his worst game. There is only a 16 % chance that he won't reach this number, so we can be fairly sure to get this amount of points each week. Let’s dig in!
I know I know, DeMarco Murray is not on a team, how can he be ranked as the 11th safest Running Back going into 2018. Well first of, it is about being safe on any given game not over the entire season. So if I am looking for a guy with the highest one game floor he is better than say Carlos Hyde that can have breakout games followed by duds. With that said, I am not telling you to draft Murray before Kareem Hunt or any of the guys behind him for that matter. I am telling you that if you do draft him ahead of the other guys if he goes to a decent situation I believe that he will bring value to your fantasy team over the course of the season while being much much cheaper than the rest of the players on this list.
When we get into the “Value” series I will break it down in a way that a guy that has a higher floor or ceiling than another one but goes 3 rounds later will have great value while he should not necessarily be drafted in the same spot. Quick example before we move on; Murray has a 5.3 floor and Gordon a 4.0. Gordon has an ADP in round 2 while Murray’s ADP puts him in round 6, there is no need for you to draft Murray in round 2 cause he has a better number than Gordon, but with the knowledge of the value waiting for you later on you can draft a stud Receiver or even draft Gordon and pair him with Murray if that is to your liking.
Next guy I would like to for you to give another look is Alex Collins. He was a guy that I championed on the Waiver Wire last year due to his terrific floor number and here he gets to showcase it again. He might not be the sexiest of draft picks but I do believe that you will get plenty of value for your buck if you draft him. He is currently going in the 4th round compared to most of the guys on this list that is very cheap and he is very serviceable. I could see myself getting him as my RB2 in the 4th 5th round and be extremely satisfied because that meant that I got studs in rounds 1-3 and a guy I am very excited about for a decent price.
I think Christian McCaffrey was way too hyped last year but a 13th spot is not that bad after all. It feels like when a huge hype like that leads to an alright season people feel like it was way worse. Even with the addition of C.J. Anderson I feel like I am a lot more willing to draft McCaffrey in 2018 compared to 2017. He is still in the late 2nd early 3rd round range but now I know what I will get from him, at least when it comes to a floor.
Carlos Hyde should be taken with a pinch of salt, changing to the Browns is not super. I know they are this off-season's darlings with the narrative "they have improved so much they might make the playoffs", well to me hold your horses and let's see before I spend a 3rd round pick on a guy on a 2-14 team.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD