Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today will be a full market share analysis of the entire NFC North. As I have stated in previous articles I will do 3 teams every other week and 4 teams the other weeks. This is due to the fact that I do a deep dive into one team every other week on the YouTube channel and I don’t want to spoil the numbers before the weekend.
If you are familiar with how I calculate Market Share you can skip down to the Packers.
First, to arrive at Rush and Pass Pools I have analyzed the trends from the team’s last two years and put that in relation two all of their opponent’s trends from the last two years. This gives us an idea of how many pass and rush attempts a team will have in 2018.
Second, to arrive at the share for each position I analyze the team's trends from the last 3 years. How they have targeted their different roles with more emphasis on the most recent year with the 3rd year getting the least amount of consideration.
With these numbers I arrive at a projection for share of the targets and carries that can be used on relation with the Rush and Pass Pools to get a projected amount of targets and carries. Let's dig in!
A great big pass pool for Aaron Rodgers to come back to while the Running Backs will have far less to share. The pass pool would have been bigger if the teams they are going to face had given up more pass attempts to their opponents. When the opponent's pass pool is a bottle neck it usually means that the teams you will play either have great defenses or terrible since teams run more against them from a lead.
I expect Adams to be a clear cut Receiver 1 next year even if I don't have him in my top 20 on the floor rankings he's still in a great situation with a beyond great Quarterback. Cobb slides into the WR2 spot by default in my mind and like the rest of the depth chart predictions, this one comes from rosterresource.com but you can of course re-arrange the players however you like them. For instance you might have Allison over Cobb, that is no problem, the numbers will stay the same.
The rushing pool is not that big and the Running Back group in Green Bay is too iffy for me. 126 projected carries for the number one back? That is not something that I am looking for in Running Back. Not only that, who will be the RB1? Will it be Jones, Montgomery or Williams? Too many questions for an insignificant workload.
The Lions are in the same situation as the Packers, big pass pool with limited amount of carries. This might be a trend in the NFC North but I gotta wait and see the last 2 teams before I make a claim like that.
The situation is again very similar to the one in Green Bay. The Lions have a clear cut number 1 Receiver with 23% of all targets, a number 2 guy with 4% less and a number 3 guy lagging behind. Golladay is however lagging behind far more than Allison. But if we were to see a change in who the number 2 target is in Detroit this would change quickly. Important for all Tate and Jones owners out there, if there is a breakout from Golladay you will see a bunch of targets disappear.
I could almost copy past what I wrote about the Running Back situation in Green Bay and put it here too. We have a way to crowded Running Back group for an insignificant number of carries. I have loved drafting Blount in the last couple of years due to him always being undervalued but going into 2018 with the Detroit backs being what they are I am not touching him with a ten foot pole and I don't think you should either.
Finally a trend breaker. The Bears own trends actually get their passing pool down while their runs increase their rush pool. However, the pass pool is extremely small, it is actually the 4th smallest pass pool in the entire league. That will impact the Receivers heavily while of course impacting Trubisky.
I wasn't too high on Robinson in my Scheme Fit Article and I am even less inclined to draft him after seeing how few targets I expect him to have in 2018. I know the Bears might change up a lot more of their targeting with a new head coach but I still don't think Robinson will see over 110 targets that I think would be necessary for him to have a good season.
Taylor Gabriel as Wide Receiver 2 also will see too few targets. Also, when it comes to Taylor Gabriel y'all should know that I had a feud with him on twitter calling him a gadget player who's numbers showed that he should not be drafted in fantasy football. This lead to him being somewhat angry but I think we saw that I was right. I stick to this evaluation, I don't think he should be more than a complementary part of your offense and only a bench player on your fantasy team, especially with less than 70 targets.
Howard and Cohen are the interesting players on this team to me and especially Howard. Having him getting more than 60% of the carries and as many targets as the second Wide Receiver is incredible and I think people have forgotten about him this off-season. Don't sleep on Howard is my advice, he has the opportunity, he just has to take advantage.
The Vikings have the largest rushing pool in the entire division which should be fantastic for Dalvin Cook and Latavius Murray, right? Well at least for one of them. The passing pool is decently big, nothing too big or too small, it is almost as average as it can gets being ranked as the 14th smallest in the league.
For Dalvin Cook the rushing pool is amazing, due to the fact that the number 1 Running Back in Minnesota usually sees around 58% of all carries which would land him 242 carries. For Murray the situation is completely different. The number 2 guy does not even see 20% of all the carries. That is a big red flag for people thinking to draft him for anything but a handcuff.
The rest of the guys (not Wright) are very much draft-able and I have done a full analysis of how they match with Kirk Cousins that you can read right here. But that article also includes a couple more teams that I analyzed with Cousins before he signed so in short, I think Thielen and Diggs will stay roughly were they were last year while Rudolph taking a step forward and really becoming a top Tight End.
I am not saying that I don't think Thielen and Diggs won't be good though, it is just that the numbers don't line up in a way that leads me to believe that they will have this amazing synergy with Cousins on another level.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD