Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, there is no stopping the rankings train right now as we get closer to the season. Today I am looking at Running Backs and more specifically Running Back floors. There will be some surprises today so if you disagree with me just hit me up on twitter @csdfantasy and let me know why I’m wrong.
Before we get into the analysis I would like to thank all of you for being engaged and enjoying the CSD Fantasy YouTube channel lately! It means a lot to me that you like the content and I’m having a ton of fun creating it!
Quick explanation of the Floor number for anyone that is not familiar with it. The Floor is the least amount of points we can expect from a player when he has his worst game. There is only a 16 % chance that he won't reach this number, so we can be fairly sure to get this amount of points each week. Let’s dig in!
The floor of these back’s is nothing short of underwhelming and I would not build my team around any of them as my RB1 or even RB2. Even a player like Jay Ajayi who lost some competition this off-season would I consider as a number two back, he is just to unreliable when it comes to fantasy scoring. I mean if the least amount of points you can expect him to score on a random week is below what you would expect from Theo Riddick you are looking at a guy that has the skills to burn you on any given Sunday.
On the flip side, a guy like Marlon Mack that has not been a workhorse in Indianapolis but has the same floor as a guy that is highly regarded is someone that I would take a flyer on. The lack of competition for Mack is very interesting and even though his floor is less than desirable he could change that by getting a bigger role. I am not saying draft him in an early round, but if you are set at Running Back and need a 3rd guy he deserves a look, at least over Bilal Powell.
Wayne Gallman even with his 2.2 is way too high on this list. We all know who the Giants drafted at number 2 overall and I do not expect Gallman to have a floor of 2.2 points, more in the range of 1. If I am staying away from only 1 player of the first 10 it is him.
Isaiah Crowell had a low floor in Cleveland and is now part of a crowded but not that talented backfield in New York. I do not expect him to change his 2.2 floor significantly, but I would not be surprised if it moved 0.2 points in either direction by the end of the season.
There is not the biggest of leaps between 31 to 30 but if we for a second think about what the numbers mean it might help you to understand why a small change will be the difference between making the playoffs or spending weeks 14, 15 and 16 only playing DFS. If Latavius Murray plays his worst and we expect him to score 3.5 fantasy points while Wayne Gallman on his worst will score 2.2. Since rosters change, players get hurt, coaches changes their mind and so on we are at a information disadvantage.
However, knowing what they do on their worst we can predict a full season of terrible games and compare that, Murray would then end up with 56 and Gallman with 35 fantasy points. That is a huge difference that will have an impact on your fantasy team, even more so when it comes to star players, if your starter can outscore your opponents star player on their bad weeks you will always have a high scoring team even if you might not have the highest in your league on that week.
This concept of course works better in season long leagues and not in DFS but I have Score Projections for DFS during the season so I will let that go in this article.
What I said about Marlon Mack can and should be said about Joe Mixon but with even more confidence. He lost competition in the off-season and his talent is undeniable, with the 22nd highest floor while not having an ideal situation last year tells me that he should have a higher floor by the end on 2018. If I am going Receiver heavy early on in a draft Joe Mixon will be there in the 3rd round and I will look to him to be a starter for me. If he falls just a little bit more I would have been even more excited but I am still good.
Lastly, Dion Lewis. A floor of 2.8 points over the last 3 years which I expect him to continue to have. The Titans wants to run the ball and even if Henry will be the workhorse Lewis should get enough touches to make him worth a 6th round pick. However, with my value approach, we could get Duke Johnson who has a higher floor in the 14th round, this is of course a little shaky at the moment with the new backfield in Cleveland, but if the Browns would have been roughly the same as last year that would have been my move.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD