Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are rolling along with the market share series and today I am looking at the NFC West expect the LA Rams that I will take a look at next weekend in a longer Video. I want to keep the intro a little shorter than usual today and just sink my teeth into the numbers instead. I will just post a quick reminder of how I calculated these numbers below and then we are ready to go.
First, to arrive at Rush and Pass Pools I have analyzed the trends from the team’s last two years and put that in relation two all of their opponent’s trends from the last two years. This gives us an idea of how many pass and rush attempts a team will have in 2018.
Second, to arrive at the share for each position I analyze the team's trends from the last 3 years. How they have targeted their different roles with more emphasis on the most recent year with the 3rd year getting the least amount of consideration.
With these numbers I arrive at a projection for share of the targets and carries that can be used on relation with the Rush and Pass Pools to get a projected amount of targets and carries. Let's dig in!
To make things a little different from last week I decided to include player names for the different roles that I have done the Market Share for. The depth charts come from rosterresource.com and showcase the team’s WR1, 2, 3, RB1, 2 and TE1. Full Score Projections for the players will however arrive later in the year and since the depth charts are subject to change so is the projections based on the new role.
The Seahawks have a pretty clear number 1 Receiver in Doug Baldwin and I expect that to stay the same even with the addition of Jaron Brown. For Baldwin the 120 targets would last year have put him in the top 13 in the most amount of targets and since we know that targets is the most driving factor for Wide Receiver scoring I am actually kind of into him right now. It is however only kind of, because last year he had 116 and finished as WR14, don’t get me wrong it is very good but it is something everyone will know and not something that is a hidden value.
Lately, as a rule, I tend to stay away from the Seattle backfield and this year will be no surprise. The split the carries and targets way too much for my liking and their guys seem to end up hurt or not getting enough touches to stay fantasy relevant for a whole year. I know there can be a change with Penny but I don’t like the 95 projected carries at all.
I am way more into Ed Dickson who arrives to a situation where a massive amount of targets has to be filled. If he can get 94 targets that would almost double his amount from last year while also placing him amongst the 8 most targeted Tight Ends. These numbers are of course based on the last 3 years when Jimmy Graham has been there so I expect that they will fall to around 80 which is still top 12 in targets, Ed Dickson is a sleeper Tight End for me.
The 49ers are interesting but it also leads to some questions we got to ask while looking at the numbers; Will they be pass heavier with Garoppolo under center than they have been before and will they stay the same and run McKinnon a ton? With those questions in mind I still went with my method but I am somewhat more hesitant to make definitive arguments before we know more.
The 49ers have to me a huge questions of who will take that WR1 role, rosterresource.com has Garcon right now but with him coming back from injury and Goodwin playing well with Garoppolo I foresee some changes in the receiving core but for the sake of keeping it consistent with the same depth charts from the same website I have Garcon as WR1. Whoever has that WR1 role though will see a lot more targets than the 2nd guy if you look at how Shanahan has been calling plays in the past.
McKinnon as their number one back will have a great big workload that I could have been a little bit bigger just to make us feel 100% sure on him. I made a full analysis of how McKinnon fits with the 49ers in this Video right here -> McKinnon Scheme Fit. In short, I think he fits very well and I hope he gets all the touches and targets he can. Breida as the second guy is debatable as Joe Williams will be back. 94 carries are up for grabs with around 30 targets so whoever gets the role will have a fantasy impact even though it will be a minor one.
Regarding Kittle, no thanks.
Massive Pass Pool for whoever takes the reins in Arizona and for the Receivers there are plenty of targets to go around.
Fitzgerald is of course the number 1 guy and with a massive target share he will again be fantasy relevant whoever is under center. With 26% of all targets going to Fitzgerald and 12% to Johnson there is less and less targets to go around for the rest of the guys. J.J. Nelson with 72 targets is not enough for me to be excited but if Fitzgerald’s numbers go down just a few percent Nelson can be up in the triple digit targets in no time. This is something to keep an eye out in the off-season and during training camp, and perhaps the Cardinals sign a veteran Receiver without a contract that can be a danger in the red zone?
With Johnson back there is no question who will be the number 1 Running Back and that he should get a big workload again even though I don’t think he’ll have more than 250 carries and less than 70 targets, I mean, they should want him to last a few more seasons to help Josh Rosen right?
Regarding Gresham, no thanks.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD