Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, it feels like the weeks are flying by as we are already at the final WR Floor Rankings article. This is where the real gems show up with a bunch of surprises that you never saw coming but will be in here due to sample size questions. There was also a little mishap with a calculations for a player so this list ended up being the top 17 Wide Receivers instead of top 18.
On Thursday I will be looking at the NFC West’s Market Share and this weekend video will be A.J. Green vs. Tyreek Hill which I know you’ll love! Also before we get into this article, had great response to the latest video where I projected the scoring for the top Cowboys players, don’t forget to check out that video with a link here and if you want a specific team done hit me up on twitter @csdfantasy.
Quick explanation of the Floor number for anyone that is not familiar with it. The Floor is the least amount of points we can expect from a player when he has his worst game. There is only a 16 % chance that he won't reach this number, so we can be fairly sure to get this amount of points each week. Let’s dig in!
No surprise at the number one spot with the best Receiver in the league, Antonio Brown. Not only is he the most reliable fantasy Receiver but he also has an amazing Quarterback throwing him the ball.
I expect Beckham to bounce back considering his numbers still place him as the second best Receiver to draft if you are looking for stable production that does not fluctuate too much. His floor last year with 7.2 was too high to maintain but the 5.2 he has now seems very doable and I think drafting him even with a declining Eli Manning will provide great value for your team.
My first surprise is Michael Thomas at number 3. I recently drafted him with the 1.11 pick in a 12 team mock draft and I could not be happier! Comparing the ADP of Thomas with the other players around him with the same floor is awesome, he goes in the middle of the second round in a 10 team league while AB, OBJ, Nuk and Julio are going in the 1st. This means that you can pick up a Running Back or one of the other stud Receivers in the 1st round and aim to the the 3rd guy here in the 2nd round, amazing value!
Next surprise is Jarvis Landry, I know I know he is in Cleveland now and we don’t know how he will mesh with Tyrod Taylor or Baker Mayfield but I don’t care about that. His stability alone is too me enough to warrant 5th round pick (what he is now going for). He will be my perfect WR2 in a 10 team league and I can’t wait to draft him and landing 2 top 6 WRs without overpaying for either one of them.
The players with the *asterisk are the guys with less than ideal sample sizes. The numbers they have put up in the games they have played earned them a spot on this list but not enough to not get a comment saying, be vary and don’t overpay for these guys.
There are also two other players I would like you to treat with caution, Pierre Garcon and Demaryius Thomas. One has a new stud QB but coming back from injury and the other one seems to really miss peak Peyton Manning (who wouldn’t?). I would not overdraft either of them but I would not mind taking a flyer if they would happened to fall in my draft or if I can get them for cheap in an Auction draft. Thomas is going in the 4th right now which is a little rich for me, especially since I rank Landry higher that goes in the 5th. Garcon has an ADP of 6.07 right now so if he happens to fall to the 7th round I might pull the trigger.
I expect Evans, Jones, Allen and Fitzgerald to continue on what they have been doing over the last 2-3 years with a slight positive regression back to his mean for Evans and a slight negative regression for DeAndre Hopkins.
As I said above, I will put Green and Hill against each other this weekend so keep an eye out for my take on the two of them.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD