Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, we are back with an article jam packed with numbers with the first Market Share article of the year. As I did last year I will focus on 3 teams in the article while leaving the 4th team for the weekend’s Score Projection Video. However, this will change from week to week with the Head-2-Head Videos being in there too. So next week’s Market Share article will have 4 teams while the one in 2 weeks will have 3 again. Enough of this setup and let us talk a little bit on how the numbers have been created before we look at 3 teams from the NFC East.
First, to arrive at Rush and Pass Pools I have analyzed the trends from the team’s last two years and put that in relation two all of their opponent’s trends from the last two years. This gives us an idea of how many pass and rush attempts a team will have in 2018. This is not an exact science but last year I was off by an average of 30 targets which with over 450 passes per QB is not that much but I have made some corrections to my formulas to get that error down somewhat.
Second, to arrive at the share for each position I analyze the team's trends from the last 3 years. How they have targeted their different roles with more emphasis on the closest year with the 3rd year getting the least consideration.
With these numbers I arrive at a projection for share of the targets and carries that can be used on relation with the Rush and Pass Pools to get a projected amount of targets and carries. Let's dig in!
So from the Redskins opponent's and their own trends, adjusted for last year's error they get a total rush pool of 366 carries for the entire team and 547 pass attempts. This is to be divided up among all players so even if a Receiver only gets 1 target he will be included, but for fantasy's sake I have narrowed it down to only showcase the important roles that you can see below.
With roles still not set for each team I have decided to leave the positions open for you to fill in yourself. This is because we might have different believes who will be the Redskins 3rd Receiver but since we both now roughly how many targets the 3rd guy will see we can make our own projection for our guy based on that.
This weekend however I will predict the roles for the Dallas Cowboys so you will get their full Seasonal Score Projection. This will be done later for as many players as I can before the season start.
The Redskins have a pretty evenly divided target distribution. The number 1 Receiver is not too far ahead of the number 2 while the Tight End is just behind him. This is something to keep in mind when eyeing the Redskins players, if they all get a fair share of the targets the value is mostly with the lower end players since they will most likely be cheaper but have almost the same chance as the number 1 guy. Furthermore, if the players are evenly targeted it is easier to have a change of number 1 guy and see the player you drafted higher slip down the pecking order.
The Giants have slightly larger pass and rush pools than the Redskins. The rushing comes mostly from being scheduled against teams that traditionally have given up a lot of rushing attempts to their opponents. The passing is all on the Giants themselves, they have even with the decline of Eli Manning kept passing the ball like crazy over the last two years. I expect this to change somewhat with the drafting of Barkley but I still see a lot of his touches still coming from easy throws.
The targeting of Barkley will be key. I expect him to see at least 50 targets in his rookie year and that the projected carries for him is too low. This is a knock on the Market Share analysis, when there is a huge shift, such as a Running Back being pick number 2 overall the trends of a team will change.
However, I will not alter my numbers based on one draft pick, to me that is data fixing and will lead to an unreliable presentation and make y'all question if I am being honest. I prefer to have a note like this saying that I believe that the projection is a little low and move on.
With OBJ back healthy the projected targets for the number 1 Receiver will most likely also be a little low, but I don't think that it is too far off since the overall amount of throws will decline compared to 1 and 2 years ago.
Huge rush pool for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2018! 404 total rushes to spread among their players, most likely the Running Backs and some for the Quarterback that will throw somewhere in between the Redskins and Giants. I'm saying Quarterback since Wentz should be back but you never know...
Not as big of disparity between WR1 and WR2 as in New York but still much bigger than in D.C. it is just one question, who will be the number 1 Receiver next year, will Agholor surpass Jeffery or will Jeffery remain on the throne?
The guy I am looking to get in Philly however is Ertz. As TE1 I have him getting over 100 targets next year which is fantastic. His ADP right now is in the 4th round, a round where I usually don't pick a Tight End but for 100 targets I am OK with it, and I actually did pick him in the 4th today in a mock draft.
Interesting to see the carries for the Eagles. With that big of a run pool you would have hoped that the RB1 would have seen a bigger share but no. Traditionally they split the carries and not even just between RB1 and 2 but with 3 and 4 too. That is something that scares me away from the Running Backs in Philadelphia and I think it should scare you too.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD