Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, today is for me a great day as we get into ranking the players for 2018! I know people have been putting out rankings for months but I only put out 2 rankings per position per off-season, the Floor Rankings and the Ceiling Rankings. Today we start the Ranking series with looking at Wide Receiver Floors. As I will be ranking 72 Wide Receivers I have decided to split them up into 3 groups, 72-37, 36-19 and 18-1. You will be able to find the full rankings in a sortable table for the first time by following this link -> Wide Receiver Rankings. There you can also find more than the 72 players I will analyze and the other position groups as we get further along.
Here is a quick explanation of the Floor number for anyone that is not familiar with it. The Floor is the least amount of points we can expect from a player when he has his worst game. There is only a 16 % chance that he won't reach this number, so we can be fairly sure to get this amount of points each week. Let’s dig in!
The first group of Receivers I will look at is the 72-55, a group that contains some names you might have much higher on your own rankings but that I believe should not be drafted as a anchor in your fantasy team.
These players, with floors this low are dangerous to build a fantasy team around. The reason for this is that their bad weeks will kill you chance at winning. They might have really good or fantastic weeks but so does players that cost less in a draft too.
These players are of course not going for that much in drafts right now and you can get them in round 9 and beyond. But, what I want you to think about is what you want from your player, is it a stable floor every week or is it massive upside for 1-2 week every year that you cannot predict?
I will be talking in these lines a lot this off-season and try to help you build a draft strategy that suits your playing style. The Floor Rankings will focus on the stable players while the Ceiling Rankings on the ones with more upside but more volatility.
This is a group of Receivers jam packed with big names but not necessarily great fantasy players, we got T.Y. Hilton leading the charge, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins, Amari Cooper and Adam Thielen. Hilton and the last 2 are the players that stand out to me.
Hilton has the opportunity to be a great fantasy Receiver if Luck is there and healthy while his Floor is greatly impacted by playing with Brissett last year. Since the numbers handle the rankings and not what I believe or feel I think this is a fairly good spot for him. His Floor is and should be low considering how he played last year, he had high peaks but too often was he a non-factor.
I am surprised to find Thielen this far down but since my numbers are based on the last 3 years and not just the most recent one he gets dropped pretty far. He also has a new Quarterback that I projected would lower his yards somewhat but add 2 touchdowns so he is at the moment for me not a player I am looking to spend big on in the draft. Interesting side note is that Thielen is now being drafted as WR40 in standard scoring leagues just behind John Brown who is ahead of him by 1 spot in my rankings too. (Thielen Fantasy Breakdown)
I have discussed Amari Cooper in relation to Brandin Cooks and did not like what I saw and this shows even more why you should be worried about him. He ranks as WR50 in my Floor Rankings meaning that there are 49 Receivers with a more stable Floor than him! This is crazy for a Receiver that is now going top 10. He has the appeal of being young, exciting and on a cool team but for fantasy that does not matter, what matters is production and he simply does not show what I need to justify a high pick on him. Cooper is more and more turning into this year’s player to stay away from for me.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD