Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, this will be the last Scheme Fit post for the season unless we see something crazy. I think this has been one of the most interesting off-seasons I have ever seen and it has been great fun getting these numbers together for you. I hope you have enjoyed the series and that you will like the next series that I have lined up for you.
Up until the draft I will finish out the Fantasy Breakdown series before starting the staple series of CSD Fantasy's pre-season; Floor and Ceiling Rankings, Market Share Analysis, Score Projection and Head-2-Head. Let's dig in!
Keenum is the most even Quarterback that I have ever analyzed when it comes to spreading the ball. I have never seen the perfect 7-7 and 32-32 which is pretty incredible. This means that the Receivers that have a preference to one side will not see any extra targets to look forward to or lack of targets.
The only pass catchers that will see a few less targets are the Tight Ends that usually sees more passes in the middle zones. However, the 3 players with the most targets in Denver are Wide Receivers so I will not be looking at a Tight End today.
His completion percentage is pretty decent, and here we finally see a preference towards one side of the field. With this information we now start to lean towards passes going to the left side will be more productive than the right.
His yards per completions are above average in the both the deep middle and deep right while deep right is on par with the rest of the league. In the shorter zones he has league average numbers to both side while his passes over the middle are 1 yard below. This to me shows a Quarterback that gets most of his numbers from the longer throws or throws that the Wide Receiver will take further after a 15 yard throw.
Demaryius Thomas - 140 Targets
Thomas's catch rate is pretty lack luster. He has above the 60% catch rate that I look for in the shorter zones but nothing too great and the deep sides have dangerously low numbers, especially for a 75 mil a year Wide Receiver.
His yards per catch does not really match with Keenum at all. He does not have crazy good yards per completion to the deep left which could have been a decent fit but there is nothing there. The only way Thomas and Keenum will rack up yards together is to the short sides where Keenum is the most comfortable but he does not place the ball in way so the Receiver can make a better play.
I am not too high on this pairing.
Emmanuel Sanders - 92 Targets
Yes! This is what we are looking for when looking for a match between a Receiver and a Quarterback. Sanders has a pretty high catch rate in the deep left with massive amount of yards per catch in the same zone. This will be a combination that will get a bunch of yards together.
The other zones match in a similar way as Thomas so there is nothing other than the deep left that will be a great zone. This is OK, but I would have been all in on Sanders in the case that we would have found a 2nd zone with a really good match.
I am pretty high on the Sanders/Keenum connection.
Bennie Fowler - 56 Targets
The catch rate is alarmingly low in all zones except the short right and short middle. This is a Wide Receiver that will not catch the ball you throw to him, this is of course also impacted by the Quarterback's he has played with but at the end of the day, you also gotta go and get it sometimes.
The catch rate is not the most important factor in fantasy but when you only saw 56 targets in 2017 you gotta make the most of it. His yards per catch is great in the short left and short middle while they are amazing in the deep left. If he can see more targtes and help Keenum get his yards per completion up in the shorter zones while Keenum helps him get more catches it might be a good fit.
The deep left will be deadly when it actually becomes a complete pass but we may only see it 2 times over the entire season.
I am not feeling this pairing, it is too many ifs and buts.
Case Keenum will bump the numbers for the top 3 targets in Denver compared to the guys that threw them the ball in 2017. However, it will not be by much and the touchdown numbers will not increase at all. In fact, the touchdowns will stay exactly the same but one will be moved from Fowler to Sanders. All in all, I expect Keenum to gain 1999 yards and 10 touchdowns for 140 fantasy points from these 3 players in 2018.
These numbers are based on the amount of targets listed above and those are based on last year so we can compare the impact Keenum would have had if he was the QB last year.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD