Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, there are some players that I never thought I would write a Scheme Fit article for and Jordy Nelson is certainly on that list. I thought that he would take a pay-cut and stay in Green Bay but never leave. But it gives us really interesting content to focus on and I have together with Jerick McKinnon the best fit so far of all the players I have analyzed so this is something you really want to take a look at.
The numbers are based on Jordy Nelson and Derek Carr's plays from the last 3 years, meaning that Nelson will not be giving credit for incredible numbers posted earlier in his career. Let's dig in!
Comparing Jordy Nelson with Allen Hurns that I analyzed last week we have the complete opposites. Jordy Nelson that is viewed as a deep threat has surprisingly low catch rates in the deep zones, especially when comparing with Hurns who had over 40% catch rate in all deep zones.
Nelson is on the other hand extremely reliable in the shorter zones with over 60% in all zones. If Derek Carr has the tendency to throw to the right side there is a perfect synergy between the two. Nelson catches so many balls on the right compared to left.
Where Nelson really shows of his deep threat abilities are with his yards per catch. He has well above average numbers in the deep zones with the deep middle being the cherry on top. Even if Carr will be useless with his throws to the deep middle Nelson will carry him on his back and raise those numbers by atleast a few yards.
The yards per catch numbers in the shorter zones are not the best ones but seeing as there is not a 7 anywhere and especially to the short right we will be good. It will be interesting to see how well the short middle and short right matches with Carr.
Yes! We instantly see that Carr prefers the short right and deep right to the left and middle of the field which is perfect for Nelson. His completion percentage however is not the best to the short right, but only 1% lower than the short left and well above the 70% that you want in your QB from the short throws.
His yards per completion is only 8 in the short right so 1 yard below league average which is slighly dissapointing. but he makes up with 3 yards per completion above average in the deep right. However, what keeps the deep right from having perfect synergy with Nelson is the completion percentage. If he had keept that up a little bit higher we would have been golden. I am not saying that it is bad though, it is still well above the league average of 41% in that zone so we are still really good.
With Nelson's abilities showcasing a right side of the field monster combined with Carr's tendencies to throw to the right with above average completion numbers and yards per catch I believe we have a really great combination on our hands.
I have analyzed the targeting trends in Oakland from the last 3 years and arrived at an amount of targets I believe Nelson will see next year depending on his role on the depth chart. These numbers are posted below, but for this table you need to know that I expect Nelson to be the 2nd Wide Receiver in Oakland.
If he indeed is the 2nd WR in Oakland and Derek Carr plays according to his 3 year average Jordy Nelson will rack up 881 yards with 8 touchdowns for 143.1 fantasy points. This is an incredible amount of points and is very rare when analyzing free agents since they usually don't match this well with their new QB/WR.
The +3 and +5 are there so if you believe that Carr will play better than what he has shown in the past you can make a projection based on those numbers.
I have not been the biggest Jordy Nelson fan in fantasy in the past but with these numbers behind me and with the belief that he will be very cheap in 2018 I am starting a small bandwagoon that you may join if you want. Furthermore, I do not believe that he will be the number 1 Wide Receiver but I will still provide a projection for it below. With what we know now I think somewhere between 99.4 and 124.1 fantasy points is a good starting point.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD