Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I hope y'all are ready for a post with a huge amount of numbers. Today I am including the Receiving Breakdowns for the top 3 pass catchers (excluding David Johnson) in Arizona while of course analyzing the passing for Sam Bradford. Before we dig in I want to apologize for the delay of this post, day job took too much time yesterday.
Targets are set at the same amount as the pass catchers had last year. This is so it will be easy for us to compare the change from Arizona's QB last year to Bradford. Let's dig in!
First thing I notice while looking at this is the huge disparity between the short left and short right. This will heavily benefit players that line up on the right side of the field and that catches more shorter passes.
His deeper throwns are very accurate while also getting a fair amount of yards. He's above average in all the deeper zones with 1 yard in each of them. However, his lack of throws to the deeper zones will impact the players that are deep threats. The QB targeting average for the deeper zones are 7%, 4% and 8% from left to right. That means a lack of deep throws, compared to other Quarterbacks.
The short throws are extremely accurate but the lack of yards coming from those throws is a huge concern. He is 2 yards below league average to the left, 1 below to the right and 3 below over the middle. With an accuracy this good with lack of yards we need a huge passing pool to be able to get the fantasy numbers up to what we are looking for.
Larry Fitzgerald - 161 Targets
With the amount of targets going to the short right with Fitzgerald's catch rate combined with Bradford's completion percentage there will be a huge amount of receptions in that zone. They will not lead to a ton of yards due to the combo of 9-8 yards but it will be their most productive zone by far. I have them projected to gain 392 yards from that zone while the short left is the second best with 281.
Their least productive zone is to no one's surprise the deep middle. This has not too much to do with Fitzgerald as it has to do with the lack of throws going there. If the Cardinals can get Bradford to throw more deep over the middle and be successful sure but I don't see it in the numbers from the last three years.
I have a table below the conclusion showing his full yardage and touchdown breakdown.
J.J. Nelson - 61 Targets
Nelson has crazy high yards per catch numbers but his catch rate is so low it kills him. I know I have been talking about the catch rate not being that important but at some point you gotta get the ball in your hands.
However, wth his incredible yards per catch and Bradford's higher completion percentage than his previous Quarterback's Nelson might see an upswing. This is however dependant on him getting more targets than last year's meager 61.
According to these numbers they will have the same best zone as FItz and Bradford and the same worst zone.
Jermaine Gresham - 46 Targets
It was very difficult to get a decent sample size for Gresham so please take his numbers with a pinch of salt. For instance over the last 3 years he has seen 1 target in the deep right zone that he caught for 34 yards. That impacts the numbers somewhat but with the lack of targets he had last year not as much as if he had 100 overall with only 1 going to one zone.
Other than that he is not a great player so match up with Bradford. Lack of yards to the short zones so nothing that will bump Bradford's numbers and with below 70% catch rate in all short zones you can definitely find a better Tight End.
Sam Bradford will bump the numbers for the top 3 targets in Arizona compared to last year. My numbers suggest an increase in yards for 2 out of 3 players while all 3 will see an increase in touchdowns. All in all I expect Bradford to gain 2005 yards and 12 touchdowns for 152.2 fantasy points from passes to these 3 players in 2018.
For a further evaluation we need to wait for the draft to conclude and see what David Johnson will do to open up the passing game further compared to 2017.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD