Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, Allen Hurns might now be the flashiest free agent signing this off-season but as a Cowboys fan I had to re-arrange the schedule a little bit to fit him in this week. I was looking forward to Dallas drafting a Wide Receiver but that looks less likely now but it let's me do an analysis featuring a Cowboys player so I am happy.
This weekend the CSD YouTube channel is back! We are starting of the 2018 season with a Free Agency Scheme Fit Video featuring Jimmy Graham. I am happy to be back making Videos and I hope you will enjoy it! Let's dig in!
After looking at Allen Robinson's catch rate I assumed that Bortles had a huge impact on why Robinson did not catch more balls. However, looking at Hurns' catch rate that simply is not true. Robinson did not have a single deep zone with more than 18% catch rate while Hurns has over 40% in all 3. I have analyzed just last week that catch rate is not the most important stat for fantasy production but it is still a bit of a redemption for Bortles.
Hurns has some really high catch rates in the shorter zones too. If the ball is thrown to him he will more than likely catch it. That is something without looking further at the numbers will be something different from Dez Bryant and Terrance Williams.
So far this sounds like an amazing free agent pick up for the Cowboys. He catches the balls that are thrown to him but what those he do with them when he has them in his hand. Well, he produces some decent numbers but fairly inconsistent. He has no clear area of the field where he is better, the right side of the field has the highest but also the lowest while the other two are also a miss-match. A Quarterback will usually have a side of the field with better stats so this is something that will impact the fit with Dak Prescott.
All in all, Hurns has some decent numbers to work with and I have placed him as the Cowboys 2nd Wide Receiver for the next part of this analysis. Being the Cowboys 2nd Receiver means that he will see 92 Targets next year. This is based on the amount of pass attempts Prescott has had over the last 2 years and his tendencies to target the number 2 Receiver.
All full breakdown of Targets and how Hurns would produce as Wide Receiver 1, 2 or 3 can be found below after the conclusion.
Dak Prescott has some interesting numbers to dig into. We see that his passing patterns heavily favors the shorter passes with pretty good completion % but with a lack of yards to the outside.
The lack of yards to the outside is not something that only showcases itself in the shorter zones but also in the deeper ones. Prescott takes care of the ball and completes his passes but does not gain too much from them. This is something that will impact Hurns' fantasy production. When a Quarterback has low yards per completion is not only on him but also on the Receivers. I view this as a partnership that is mostly impacted by the Quarterback, if he can't put the ball in place for the Receiver to make a play it is difficult to gain yards.
Looking for synergies the first thing I notice is the short right zone. That is Prescott most targeted zone while it has a fairly low catch rate for Hurns and low yardage production from the both of them. This is the opposite of ideal and will heavily impact the fantasy production.
For this partnership to be more successful we need to see more passes over the middle to Hurns. He has some great stats both deep and short over the middle while Prescott's yards per completion and completion percentages are his best ones.
So with high completion percentages for Prescott, high catch rate for Hurns but with a lack of synergy how will the production look?
As I said above, this is with Hurns as the 2nd Receiver in Dallas and the numbers are so and so. If we assume that Prescott will stay the same as the previous 2 years Hurns is looking at 89.1 fantasy points, which would have landed him a WR 45 spot. For a 3% increase in Prescott's stats Hurns would have finished as WR 39 and with an increase in 5% WR 36.
As a Cowboys fan I am very excited that they are trying to improve their WR group but as a fantasy expert I am not too excited. I don't see Hurns finishing higher than WR 25 even if he's the number 1 guy in Dallas with Prescott improving around 5%. A realistic scenario to me is a 3% improvement from Prescott with a 2nd WR spot for Hurns which would land him roughly 97.8 fantasy points.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD