Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, feels good to be back with the regular schedule again! You will see a lot of articles about players I already have analyzed but the reason behind this is that they actually joined teams I did not project them with. So today I am again looking at Allen Robinson but instead of with the 49ers, Jaguars or Panthers I am looking at him in relation to Mitch Trubisky and the Bears. I have some new twist in this article that I hope you will enjoy. Let's dig in!
If you did not read my previous Fantasy Breakdown of Allen Robinson I encourage you to do so by clicking HERE. But if you don't have the time to read more than one article today that focuses on Allen Robinson I got your back.
By analyzing his Receiving Trends on relation to Mitch Trubisky's Passing Trends we can make projections for the 2018 season. I do this by first looking at Robinson's Catch Rate and Yards Per Catch in 6 different zones.
Knowing how he performs in the different zones gives us an idea of where on the field he plays his best football and also let's us compare his numbers in a more accurate way to Trubisky compared to if we just took their usual production.
With a pretty low Catch Rate in all zones we can make the conclusion that he needs somewhat of a lot of targets to be productive. Not catching the ball in itself is not a big deal which you can read more about in Wide Receiver Correlations if you click here. The main thing is the amount of targets and how often he will make a big play on a ball that Trubsiky usually throws with accuracy and to a zone he throws to frequently.
Trubisky's most targeted deep zone is the deep left with 8 % which is perfect for Allen Robinson and get's me excited right away. The synergy is exactly what we are looking for, 8% of his throws, with 18% Catch Rate and 33 Yards Per Catch for Robinson. Add the 35% Completion Percentage and 23 Yards Per Completion and we got ourself a pretty deadly combination. I would have liked Trubisky's Completion Percentage to be higher but it is still decent enough.
The lack of throws to the deep right and middle are just what we are looking for. They are zones where Robinson is less productive. If Trubsiky had a higher Yards Per Completion to any of these two zones compared to the deep left I would have been somewhat negative but since the ball is being thrown there less it is perfect.
Robinson's most productive short zone is the short right. What we are looking for then is a combination of stats that will show us if this is a good fit with Trubisky. 31% of all throws to the short right, 63% Completion Percentage, 2nd highest of all zones with 5% of targets or more and 9 Yards Per Completion. It is not the perfect synergy that we could have hoped for but it is OK.
The perfect synergy would have been for Trubsiky to have his most targeted zone being the short right with 32% instead of 31%, Completion Percentage of 72% instead of 63% and his Yards Per Completion 11 instead of 9. To see a Quarterback that have almost perfect synergy with his Receivers check out Fantasy Breakdown Carson Wentz.
Before we come to the conclusion I wanted to show you how Trubisky's numbers would look if they improved with 5%. This will be used down below in the Conclusion so I thought it would be good for y'all to get an idea of what I am trying to showcase.
If you the reader believes that Mitch Trubisky will stay roughly the same in year 2 our get a little bit better or a lot better here you have a breakdown of what Allen Robinson might be in those 3 scenarios.
Trubisky's sample size is very limited so doing further analysis on what he will be is very difficult. It is much better to provide you with the information and let you make your own assumption on what he can be.
If Trubsiky stays the same getting 96.8 fantasy points from Allen Robinson is decent, and would have landed him a spot as Wide Receiver 39 last year while a 10% improvement from Trubsiky would have gotten him all the way up to Wide Receiver 15.
The scenarios are far apart but if you believe in Trubisky I would buy Allen Robinson for 2018.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD