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Free Agency: Allen Robinson


Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I am sorry about the lack of content last weekend! My computer broke down on Saturday so I am unfortunately lost a lot of my Video content that was supposed to go into a ton of future Videos. However, no use in crying over spilled milk and no worries about the content. I will release all the planned content in due time it will just be a couple of weeks before I get things up and rolling with a weekly video again.

Today I will be looking at the best fits for Allen Robinson. What Quarterback in a couple of his potential landing spots would have the best fit with him, how his trends have looked over the last 3 years and so on. Let's dig in!

Robinson


To start of we must look at Robinson's own play trends except how many targets he usually sees in each zone. This will be determined by the Quarterback's passing patterns and not the Receiver's.

Robinson's Catch Rate will of course be impacted by playing with Blake Bortles his. This is something that is very difficult to get away from but when you take into the other Quarterbacks into account you will see some very interesting numbers that might change your mind about Bortles.

Robinson catches almost no ball thrown to him over the middle while he needs around 4 to 5 targets to the short left and right to catch 1 ball! This is not something that is common among a top Receiver. Adam Thielen catches 33% in his best zone and Michael Thomas has two zones with over 30 %.

However, he does average 10 yards per catch to all short zones which is more than Thielen and Thomas that tends to have a preference with one of the sides. With Robinson being somewhat equal in his production (not in catching the ball but still) we will see more synergies with some Quarterbacks compared to others.

Panthers - 150 Targets


Putting Cam Newton's numbers in relation to Allen Robinson's it gets painfully obvious how terrible Newton is at throwing the deep ball. The stats above are what Robinson would have made with Newton over an entire season with 150 targets. The main reason for the lack of synergy is however not the deep ball, it is the short throw over the middle. Even with Robinson only catching 12% of his targets in the short middle zone Newton just can't make a completion there and they would only get around 104 yards on roughly 20 targets.

I will add the Touchdown number to this equation further down in the article where I add up all the teams.

Jaguars - 150 Targets


If Robinson stayed in Jacksonville and had Bortles as his Quarterback again he would as with Newton have a Quarterback that can't complete a deep ball, but, Bortles actually completes 75% of his passes to the short middle zone whereas Newton only completes 67%. Not only that but Bortles throws less to the deeper zones which leads him to potentially throw 37 times to the short middle. Again, this is not a good zone for Robinson but it will rack up more yards than throwing deep and missing the Receiver.

The other 2 short zones are quite evenly matched with Newton while Newton has a small advantage to the deep outside zones even if it is minimal.

49ers - 150 Targets


As with the article focusing on Jarvis Landry, the 49ers have so much cap space that it would be shocking if they did not try to get one of the high profile Receivers to pair with Garoppolo for 2018.

Garoppolo while playing in San Francisco actually had a worse completion percentage throwing deep than the other 2 Quarterbacks. However, since he throws the ball deep so seldom while being accurate and productive in the shorter zones he fits pretty well with Robinson.

It is going to very close between the three Quarterbacks if we are just going by yards. None of them have an amazing synergy with Robinson even if Newton does well deep left, Bortles throws a lot to the short middle and Garoppolo is accurate in the shorter zones. Let's look at everything combined and throw in the Touchdown stats for all three Quarterbacks in relation to Robinson.

Conclusion


With 150 targets Robinson would have the best season with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Bortles is not far behind but I think this is due to what I mentioned in the beginning. Robinson's personal stats have been impacted by playing with Bortles to begin with. The worst fit would be with Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Robinson in Carolina would still catch 6 Touchdowns but lack the yardage to be a really interesting player for fantasy football.

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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD


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