Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I would like to thank y'all for your suggestions for the Fantasy Breakdowns players! Next week I have gotten a great suggestion of Dion Lewis and today I am looking at Michael Thomas. I was not a huge believe in Thomas as a great fantasy player in year 2 already but with a top 7 spot I will be the first one to say that I was wrong and I look forward to learn more on why that was the case today. Let's dig in!
I know I have been nagging on about this stat, but Drew Brees actually scored more fantasy points on the road than at home last year and this is where you can really see it. His most targeted player scored almost 5 more points on average on the road too. This is very interesting seeing as Brees and the Saints are generally viewed as a team that are better in New Orleans.
In a DFS situation were the Saints are playing a NFC team with a winning record at home I will not be starting Thomas. This is the beauty of knowing as much as possible about all players, you can make these tiny adjustments, they don't have to form all your opinions but they can help you pick between two players to start.
The information I want you to take with you from this chart is that Thomas is not a guy that will fall of later in the game, he will however leave some yards on the field yearly on in the games. This is somewhat worrisome if the Saints can get a lead early on and throw less later on and leave Thomas out of the game plan time to time. This was not the case last year so I would not put too much value on it but it is noteworthy.
On the left, you see how he ranked each week in 2017 and the percentages for each category. Finishing as a Wide Receiver 1 means that he was the 12th highest scoring Receiver or better that week, WR 2 means between 13th and 24th best and so on. I went with 12th as Wide Receiver 1 due to a lot of leagues being 12 team leagues.
On the right, you have how many games he was "usable" meaning that he should have been started in any of the 10 teams in the league as a Wide Receiver 1, 2 or flex player.
Thomas only had three weeks where he did not finish as a WR 3 or better which is fantastic and something I love in a draft pick. I love consistency and stability in a player so seeing this makes me actually fall for Thomas a little bit and open my eyes to a player I know am very excited to draft next year. Comparing Thomas to Thielen from last week who only had 8 usable weeks and had 8 WR 3 weeks or better is a huge difference, and this is only between WR 7 and WR 11.
1 % of all of Thomas' targets came to the deep middle. This is something I don't think I have ever seen in a top 25 Receiver! He only had two targets deep over the middle and caught both but the lack of passing coming to the zone is very interesting. He has 2 dominating zones that take more than half his targets and they are his least productive ones. I would love to see a couple more deep shots next year where he really can rack up the yards. For a time it looked like that Brees was gone but then he turned it on, so right now I feel like we can see one more year of deep shots.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD