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Today I will be dissecting the three best receiving targets for three potential landing spots for Kirk Cousins and showing why I believe one spot is better than the other two for fantasy reasons. Let's dig in!
The three most targeted non-Running Backs for the jets last year actually had pretty great season with McCown under center. To arrive at these numbers I have done a Fantasy Breakdown of Cousins and compared his passing patterns over the entire field plus red zone tendencies and compared them with the receivers. To make the comparison easier to make I have assumed that the receivers would see as many targets in 2018 with Cousins as they saw in 2017.
It is pretty clear that Cousins just based on the numbers for the top 2 targets would not be that big of an improvement. His yards per completion in zones where Anderson and Kearse rack up most of their yards is just no high enough. This is of course something better Receiver can help Cousins with but, I am not so sure that the Jets have that much better Receivers than Washington.
The Broncos would see a massive upgrade in Yards and Touchdowns compared to what they have had over the last three years. He would make the top 2 guys fantasy relevant again. Even if I only project an increase with 150 Yards for Thomas, adding a Touchdown on top of that would make me very interested cause I still believe his value would not be too high. Sanders would also become an interesting pick, late draft pick for a pretty decent production.
What really makes the difference is Cousins deep ball compared to Siemian, Osweiler, Lynch and old Manning. The Receivers would start to get a lot more Yards on the deep balls while the short passes would roughly stay the same. Fowler would not see that big of difference but I believe that he's mostly impacted by lack of targets in this situation. I am not saying he should have more, just that if he had more Cousins' impact would be greater.
Comparing Cousins passing trends with the Vikings top three guys really shows something. Keenum and Bradford has really been playing on a high level the last two season. Cousins would actually only increase the Yards for Rudolph while the other two would go down slightly. However, Rudolph would most likely go down in Touchdowns and so would Diggs while Thielen would go up. It is very interesting to comparing trends and patterns, it really do open your eyes to hidden factors.
Even if I was a little bit negative about the Vikings fit, it would still be the best place for Cousins to go as a fantasy Quarterback. Not only does he have the better fit with them out of the three teams, but the Vikings also have a top 3 defense and a group of Running Backs that could help him out with getting some YAC.
The Broncos would actually be the least exciting destination for fantasy football. Even if it would be a massive upgrade for the Broncos players, it would be a step back for Cousins.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD