Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, I have some great new numbers for you today while we take a deeper look into Adam Thielen. The new numbers will be part of the new Fantasy Breakdown Videos and Articles here on the website and I really hope you will enjoy them. Let's dig in!
Thielen has some stable numbers when you look at his scoring patterns. The only real outlier is the lack of points against the NFC, which is alarming since he plays in the NFC North. This is somewhat of a concern for me going into 2018 since the Vikings play 12 of their 16 games against NFC teams. If he had had this disparity going in the other way it would have been of no concern at all since 4 out of 16 is manageable but an average of 6.3 points for 12 games is not what I am looking for in a high draft pick.
Looking at Thielen's game situations the point we can take with us into next season is that you can trust him to produce during any part of the game. I like to have this as a part of the Fantasy Breakdown to really understand a player. However, it is more obvious why it is good to look at when you have a player with a big difference in production in a particular quarter. With Thielen you can say neither good or bad, he will get you the same production all game long.
We have reached the new numbers that I chose to call Usability. I wanted to showcase how many games Thielen was ranked as a Wide Receiver 1, 2, 3, 4 or worse and how many games he was "usable" in a 10 team 1 flex spot league.
On the left, you see how he ranked each week in 2017 and the percentages for each category. Finishing as a Wide Receiver 1 means that he was the 12th highest scoring Receiver or better that week, WR 2 means between 13th and 24th best and so on. I went with 12th as Wide Receiver 1 due to a lot of leagues being 12 team leagues.
On the right, you have how many games he was "usable" meaning that he should have been started in any of the 10 teams in the league as a Wide Receiver 1, 2 or flex player. If you played Thielen in the 8 weeks he was usable you probably made the right decision, but if you played him in the other 8 weeks where he scored below the usability threshold, you probably made the wrong decision. This is something that I help with during the season with the Score Projection and Risk Analysis articles where I help you make these decisions.
Lastly, we have the receiving patterns where there are a couple of interesting things to not. His most productive zone the Deep Middle is his least targeted zone while his most targeted one the Short Right is his least productive. This is something that could perhaps be changed with a different Quarterback next season. Quarterback trends heavily impact the Receiver trends, not just their performance. For instance, if QB-A and QB-B are evenly skilled but QB-A has a trend of throwing to the right while QB-B prefers the left one will match better with the Receiver that is more comfortable catching ball to the right compared to the other one.
I will post Case Keenum's and all the other Quarterbacks passing patterns on Instagram and on Twitter this off-season so make sure to keep an eye out for that to learn more.
Like and Re-tweet, everything is appreciated!
The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD