Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, hundreds of y'all voted for Leonard Fournette over Adam Thielen so what can I do but to listen. I believe that this article series focuses on some of the most important aspects of fantasy football, the evaluation, and analysis, If you do not look back at the season that was and really dig into how different players performed how can you expect to better understand them going forward? I will put out a poll again for next week so you can vote for who you would like me to analyze next. Let's dig in!
The reason that I talk about these three stats a lot is that they are big parts of the CSD Fantasy's Score Projection algorithm. I usually provide you with the numbers behind my rankings and things of that nature to keep the site transparent but with a Projection Accuracy of over 80 %, I would not feel good in going deeper into the algorithm. But enough about that, let's talk about Fournette's numbers.
Fournette has some pretty darn good numbers but the two stats that stick out are the Home and Below 500. Scoring almost four points less at home compared to away is very interesting and not something that is super common. The interesting thing about the Home vs. Away stats is that all players have the same amount of Home and Away games if we assume you are healthy and ignore London and Mexico City. That means that it will be very easy to sit Fournette or not play him in a DFS league when he plays a team with a below 500 record at Home.
Holy C¤%p, how can he average 8.8 yards on 3rd downs!? That is incredible, and something to take into consideration, especially when you are playing DFS. My reasoning behind this is if you believe that the Jaguars will take a lead and run the ball a ton, getting into a bunch of 3rd and short situations where a run play is an option Fournette will be a great guy to start. When you put this in relation to the 4th quarter situation you get a back that is very good when he gets to run all game long and run on different downs and not just 1st and 2nd.
For the people who have never read any of my previous Running Back features, this is how I divide the field. A back can run in these directions, with behind the center getting two running lanes and the lest being called outside the right guard for instance.
Fournette ran 39 % of his runs to either side of the center and 13 % each outside the guards. That let us know that most of his runs involve the three interior linemen on 65 % of all his runs, so any change to Linder (C), Omameh (G) or Cann (G) can either be a boost or a huge negative for him. Furthermore, the guards' impact even more runs. The 35 % runs that are left are evenly spread out with 8.5 % outside the tackles and outside the tight ends. So a change to a tackle or a tight end would only impact 8,5 % of his runs, not that big of a deal. So if you own Fournette or plan to draft him, do your homework on the Jaguars interior linemen this off-season!
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD