Hello Fantasy Faithfuls, with the number of views and positive response I have gotten from the Fantasy Breakdown Videos I thought, why not start an article series with the same principle? So here is the first article in the new Fantasy Breakdown series, which will focus on Carson Wentz. Next week will look at another player and if you tweet me the name of one @csdfantasy your player has the chance to be picked. Let's dig in!
Breaking down his Scoring Patterns we see that he performs better at home than away. This is not something that is unusual for Quarterbacks or any player really. But we have some outliers in the league that actually score more Fantasy Points on the road so it is still important to pay attention to the stat. Wentz scored way more points against AFC teams than NFC, which mostly comes from the games against Denver and Kansas City which are still pretty good teams. Lastly, he scores way more points against teams above a 500 record. I think this is the most interesting stat out of these three cause it lets you know that he can very much handle the schedule next year playing against the division winners.
With a one-game Floor of 15.2, he actually had the highest of all Quarterbacks that played more than 8 games. Just with that stat, I know he will be ranked very high on my Quarterback rankings next year. He will of course, not be the highest due to the sample size and the fact that I am sure he will be drafted way too high for me.
There were only three Quarterbacks that played the entire season that had a higher Ceiling than Wentz, Russell Wilson, Alex Smith (!) and Cam Newton. Again scoring this high is so good I start to realize that he would have won the MVP if he stayed healthy, no doubt in my mind if he just continued somewhat close to this.
He averaged a Score Projection of 16.2 points, very stable Projection with the low Risk of 10.1% on average. Dynasty owners that have Wentz on their roster will most likely not worry about the Quarterback situation for a lot of years!
Before I wrap this up I wanted to show where on the field Wentz makes his money. He has almost a perfect synergy with where he throws the ball and where he gets the most of his passing yards. For instance, he throws 8% of all throws deep to the outside, his two most productive areas and throws less to the middle where his receivers gain fewer yards.
For the shorter passes, we find the only place without a perfect fit. They should not be throwing the ball to the short right that much. With 10 and 11 yards per completion short over the middle and to the left, the Eagles could be calling fewer plays to the short right will dialing up some more short throws to the left or the middle. This is something I will speak more on over the off-season when I look at Free-Agency.
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The spreadsheets are dark and full of terror // CSD